Mysterious? Drastic drop of Japan's new COVID cases after summer peak

In this summer, Tokyo, there were approximately 5,000 cases per day at the biggest pandemic so far. But it dropped down to less than 100 new cases which have been continuing for about a month. The peak was out one month ago after having almost-feel-like-enduring some restrictions on our activities by the state of emergency over a three-month period. Precautionary measures, that applied after the state of emergency lifted, have been relying on just voluntary compliance for a month as many people think that new cases would increase gradually, I think. However, there is no sign of increasing at all. Why?

Specialists have been trying to analyze the cause, but a convincing explanation hasn't been publicized yet. It seems that it consists of complex elements, such as a high fully vaccinated ratio, 71.6%, lesser traveling than summertime, and others.

My understanding of what the specialists concern about near future are:

  • Active movement in winter holiday season
  • Increase of indoor activity due to the cold weather

Additionally, a decrease in vaccination effects who vaccinated at the beginning of this year is my concern.

We better keep our fingers cross hoping not to have a new peak end of this year!

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